Skripsi S1
Pengaruh Nilai Tukar, Suku Bunga, Inflasi dan Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) (Studi Data Bulanan Harga Saham Gabungan di Bursa Efek Indonesia)
Abstrak
Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui pengaruh nilai tukar, suku bunga, inflasi dan produk domestik bruto (PDB) terhadap indeks harga saham gabungan (IHSG). Populasi dalam penelitian ini adalah indeks harga saham gabungan (IHSG) di BEI periode 2015-2018. Teknik pengambilan sampel dalam penelitian ini menggunakan teknik sampling jenuh menghasilkan 48 sampel data time series bulanan selama periode 2015-2018.Teknik analisis yang digunakan adalah analisis regresi linear berganda dengan bantuan software Eviews 10. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa: 1) nilai tukar berpengaruh positif signifikan terhadap indeks harga saham gabungan (IHSG), 2) suku bunga tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap indeks harga saham gabungan (IHSG), 3) inflasi tidak berpengaruh terhadap indeks harga saham gabungan (IHSG), 4) produk domestik bruto (PDB) berpengaruh positif signifikan terhadap indeks harga saham gabungan (IHSG), 5) nilai tukar, suku bunga, inflasi dan produk domestik bruto (PDB) secara simultan berpengaruh terhadap indeks harga saham gabungan (IHSG). Berdasarkan nilai Adjusted R Square (R2) dalam penelitian ini, indeks harga saham gabungan (IHSG) dapat dijelaskan oleh pengaruh variasi variabel independen nilai tukar, suku bunga, inflasi dan produk domestik bruto (PDB) sebesar 66,84% sedangkan 33,16% dijelaskan oleh variabel lain diluar penelitian ini.
Kata Kunci: IHSG, nilai tukar, suku bunga, inflasi, PDB
Abstract
This study aimed to determine the effect of exchange rate, interest rate, inflation and gross domestic product (GDP) to composite stock price index (IHSG). The population used are composite stock price index (IHSG) in IDX 2015-2018 period. Sampling technique used is total sampling and obtained by amount as much 48 sampel monthly time series data in 2015-2018 period. Analysis technique used is multiple linear regression analysis with Eviews 10. The result of study shown that:1) exchange rate has positive and significant effect on composite stock price index (IHSG), 2) interest rate hasn’t effect on composite stock price index (IHSG), 3) inflationhasn’t effect on composite stock price index (IHSG), 4) gross domestic product (GDP) has positive and significant on composite stock price index (IHSG), 5) exchange rate, interest rate, inflation and gross domestic product (GDP) simultaneously have significant effect on composite stock price index (IHSG). Based on the value of adjusted R2,composite stock price index (IHSG) can be explained by the influence of variations independent variables: exchane rate, interest rate, inflation and gross domestic bruto (GDP) as 66,84%, while 33,16% influenced by other variables out of the research model.
Keywords: composite stock price index, exchange rate, interest rate, inflation, gross domestic product
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